No. 51

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How can electricity go wrong? Dilemmas and failure scenarios

  • Erik Terk

    Erik Terk

    Project Manager at Tallinn University, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management and Futures Studies

  • Raivo Vare

    Raivo Vare

    Estonian Entrepreneur, Social Activist

  • Uku Varblane

    Head of Research at Foresight Centre

The future of Estonia’s electricity system is fraught with strategic dilemmas and risk-laden uncertainties.

Authors present three “black scenarios” illustrating how delayed renewable energy deployment, overdependence on electricity imports, and rising energy protectionism could imperil Estonia’s economic and societal stability. Their analysis reveals that both bold action and undue caution in energy policy can backfire. Through expert consultation and scenario modelling, the authors highlight that stable, affordable electricity—especially domestically produced wind power with adequate reserve capacity—is vital for attracting industrial investment and maintaining resilience. However, failing to align ambition with infrastructure and geopolitical reality may push Estonia into costly dependency or unaffordable energy. Strategic clarity and composure are imperative to navigate this high-stakes transition.

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