No. 13




Will the Estonian people survive?

13 June 2006


RiTo No. 13, 2006

In Estonia as well as other parts in Europe, the search has been on for some time for the magical cure that would make more women have children.

Besides the low birth rate, which is two-thirds the replacement level, Estonia also faces a problem in its relatively low average life expectancy and high mortality. The main concern, however, is that Estonia’s population of 1.3 million (including only 0.93 million ethnic Estonians) is especially sensitive to any decrease. Fortunately, demographic forecasts have become increasingly positive lately. For a while, theoreticians warned that Estonia’s population could drop by a third or even half over the next half a century. In light of the background of the forecasts and algorithms, it should be noted that the figures for population forecasts compiled at various times instil optimism rather than pessimism. Naturally, mortality and birth rate indicators are evaluated on the basis of current data, and population forecasts are repeatedly recalculated. According to the last Eurostat forecast, Estonia’s population will be 1.1 million in 2050.

Full article in Estonian