During the last 73 years, since 1950, the population on the Earth has increased by 3.26 times, but this process will reverse in the current century.
Ene-Margit Tiit
Demographer, Professor Emeritus, University of Tartu
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During the last 73 years, since 1950, the population on the Earth has increased by 3.26 times, but this process will reverse in the current century.
The Unit of Family Studies at the University of Tartu was active for more than 20 years since the end of the 1960s. During this time, around ten surveys (in the form of questionnaires) were conducted, and 10 collections of research papers and a number of pedagogically oriented publications, as well as articles in other journals were published.
When we are concerned about the size and welfare of the population of Estonia, for many people, this concern has a common subtext or principal tone – how are the Estonians doing, the native inhabitants of this corner of the Earth, the small nation of less than a million? Throughout the duration of its existence, a threat has been hanging over its head – to be or not to be, can it preserve the population size needed to preserve its own culture, so that the neighbours and the immigrants arriving here will not assimilate it?
Population censuses are the oldest statistics activities in human history. Their history goes back thousands of years. Researchers laid down the rules for modern population censuses at an international conference of statisticians more than 150 years ago. However, by now, these rules and frameworks have proved too narrow for the demographic development: it has become considerably more difficult to question people, because people value their privacy and do not wish to disclose their data.
Besides the Estonians, people of several other nationalities have lived on the territory of Estonia throughout its history. They have come and gone, and often these comings and goings have been violent and bloody, but in spite of everything the native people here, whose number in some periods has dwindled rather low, have preserved their own language and are an independent nation today.
Since the 1990s, the population of Estonia has decreased. The largest decrease – around 200,000 people – took place between the censuses of 1989 and 2000; three fourths of it consisted of negative net migration. Not all cases of emigration were registered and, as a result of that, several tens of thousands of people who have left long ago are still in the population register of Estonia as permanent residents. At the census of 2000, the number of people counted was smaller than expected by about 60,000. Part of them had emigrated and not registered it; others were persons who remained uncounted, according to estimation, there were at least 20,000 of them.
In the author’s opinion, the trends that characterise the development of population in Estonia at present generally are not positive.
The article analyzes parental benefits, which were established in Estonia in 2004, and their possible effect on family planning decisions and employment of women.
In Estonia as well as other parts in Europe, the search has been on for some time for the magical cure that would make more women have children.
The article is based on the findings of the study on compliance of the Estonian pension system with the 11 common pension objectives of the European Union. The study was commissioned by the Government Office and the Ministry of Social Affairs of Estonia and carried out by the expert team of the PRAXIS Center for Policy Studies.