Population projection. How many people will be living in Estonia and the rest of the world in half a century?
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Leading Analyst, Population and Education Statistics Team, Statistics Estonia
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Demographer, Professor Emeritus, University of Tartu
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Team Lead, Population and Education Statistics Team, Statistics Estonia
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Analyst, Statistics Estonia
During the last 73 years, since 1950, the population on the Earth has increased by 3.26 times, but this process will reverse in the current century.
Birth rates are falling on all continents, though in Africa least of all. Thanks to birth control, mostly only wanted children will be born. Probably the population of the Eart will start declining in the second half of this century.
Estonia’s latest population projections also show a decline in population. The natural birth rate has been mostly negative since the restoration of independence, but net migration has been positive since 2016. The most realistic projection shows that the population of Estonia will be 1.2 million in 60 years. The predicted number of population mainly depends on migration – if immigration is higher, the population will be larger in the future, but in this case, the share of Estonians in the population will inevitably decrease. According to predictions, the population of Harju County and Tartu County will increase, while the population of other counties will decrease.
Due to the continued increase in life expectancy, the share of working-age people, i.e. those aged 20–64, will decrease. When the average life expectancy is 90 years, people will only be of working age for half of their lives.